Interpreting the output

After you have pressed the ‘Submit’ button, a figure showing a histogram of the projected change in e.g. daily maximum temperature will appear. The blue line represents the first decade of this century and the red line the last decade. From the figure you will see how the frequency of your variable of interest changes between the first and last decades of this century. If you wish, you can save this figure locally on your computer. Furthermore you will see the percentage change in the extremes over the course of the century. The dashed lines represent threshold values. The threshold values depend on your variable of interest, viz.

Comparison to Virtual Climate Station Network (VCSN)

The VCSN provide daily maximum and minimum temperatures on a regular 5 km x 5 km grid derived from observations at climate stations located around the country. VCSN data are used to compare the frequency of model simulated extreme events in the first decade of the century to real world measurements.

Spell Plots

If you choose your variable of interest to be hot/cold or wet/dry spells, the result will be presented in a bar plot, showing the number of occurrences (y-axes) of different length of spells (x-axes). The number of occurences for a given spell length could be a fractional number as we are calculating the probability of climate events occurring. This tool does not predict when extreme events occur, but rather the frequency with which such events are projected to occur.

Invalid Location

If the "Invalid Location" error occurs please select a different location as the models used in the analysis do not have data at the selected position. The models used in this analysis cover a majority of New Zealand, but some smaller islands such as Great Barrier island may have data available.